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Governments must plan for migration in response to climate change, researchers say

Governments around the world must be prepared for mass migrations caused by rising global temperatures or face the possibility of calamitous results, say University of Florida scientists on a research team reporting in the Oct. 28 edition of Science.

If global temperatures increase by only a few of degrees by 2100, as predicted by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, people around the world will be forced to migrate. But transplanting populations from one location to another is a complicated proposition that has left millions of people impoverished in recent years. The researchers say that a word of caution is in order and that governments should take care to understand the ramifications of forced migration.

A consortium of 12 scientists from around the world, including two UF researchers, gathered last year at the Rockefeller Foundation’s Bellagio Center to review 50 years of research related to population resettlement following natural disasters or the installation of infrastructure development projects such as dams and pipelines. The group determined that resettlement efforts in the past have left communities in ruin, and that policy makers need to use lessons from the past to protect people who are forced to relocate because of climate change.

“The effects of climate change are likely to be experienced by as many people as disasters,” UF anthropologist Anthony Oliver-Smith said. “More people than ever may be moving in response to intense storms, increased flooding and drought that makes living untenable in their current location.”

“Sometimes the problem is simply a lack of regard for the people ostensibly in the way of progress,” said Oliver-Smith, an emeritus professor who has researched issues surrounding forced migration for more than 30 years. But resettlements frequently fail because the complexity of the task is underestimated. “Transplanting a population and its culture from one location to another is a complex process — as complicated as brain surgery,” he said.

“It’s going to be a matter of planning ahead now,” said Burt Singer, a courtesy faculty member at the UF Emerging Pathogens Institute who worked with the research group. He too has studied issues related to population resettlement for decades.

Singer said that regulatory efforts promoted by the International Finance Corporation, the corporate lending arm of the World Bank, are helping to ensure the well-being of resettled communities in some cases. But as more people are relocated — especially very poor people with no resources — financing resettlement operations in the wake of a changing climate could become a real challenge.

Planning and paying for resettlement is only part of the challenge, Oliver-Smith said. “You need informed, capable decision makers to carry out these plans,” he said. A lack of training and information can derail the best-laid plans. He said the World Bank increasingly turns to anthropologists to help them evaluate projects and outcomes of resettlement.

“It is a moral imperative,” Oliver-Smith said. Also, a simple cost-benefit analysis shows that doing resettlement poorly adds to costs in the future. Wasted resources and the costs of malnutrition, declining health, infant and elder mortality, and the destruction of families and social networks should be included in the total cost of a failed resettlement, he said.

Oliver-Smith said the cautionary tales of past failures yield valuable lessons for future policy makers, namely because they point out many of the potential pitfalls than can beset resettlement projects. But they also underscore the fact that there is a heavy price paid by resettled people, even in the best-case scenarios.

In the coming years, he said, many projects such as hydroelectric dams and biofuel plantations will be proposed in the name of climate change, but moving people to accommodate these projects may not be the simple solution that policy makers sometimes assume.

A clear-eyed review of the true costs of forced migration could alert governments to the complexities and risks of resettlement.

“If brain surgeons had the sort of success rate that we have had with resettling populations, very few people would opt for brain surgery,” he said.

Contact: Anthony Oliver-Smith
aros@ufl.edu
352-377-8359
University of Florida

The Generation X Report: U-M survey paints a surprisingly positive portrait

They’ve been stereotyped as a bunch of insecure, angst-ridden, underachievers. But most members of Generation X are leading active, balanced and happy lives, according to a long-term University of Michigan survey.

“They are not bowling alone,” said political scientist Jon Miller, author of The Generation X Report. “They are active in their communities, mainly satisfied with their jobs, and able to balance work, family, and leisure.”

Miller directs the Longitudinal Study of American Youth at the U-M Institute for Social Research. The study, funded by the National Science Foundation since 1986, now includes responses from approximately 4,000 Gen Xers—those born between 1961 and 1981.

“The 84 million Americans in this generation between the ages of 30 and 50 are the parents of today’s school-aged children,” Miller said. “And over the next two or three decades, members of Generation X will lead the nation in the White House and Congress. So it’s important to understand their values, history, current challenges and future goals.”

The first in a new quarterly series of Generation X Reports describes how Gen Xers are faring in terms of employment and education; marriage and families; parenting; community involvement and religion; social relationships; recreation and leisure; digital life; and happiness and life satisfaction.

Among the many findings:

• Compared to a national sample of all adults, Gen Xers are more likely to be employed and are working and commuting significantly more hours a week than the typical U.S. adult, with 70 percent spending 40 or more hours working and commuting each week.
• Two-thirds of Generation X adults are married and 71 percent have minor children at home.
• Three-quarters of the parents of elementary school children say they help their children with homework, with 43 percent providing five or more hours of homework help each week.
• Thirty percent of Generation X adults are active members of professional, business or union organizations, and one in three is an active member of a church or religious organization.
• Ninety-five percent talk on the phone at least once a week to friends or family, and 29 percent say they do so at least once a day.

“In sociologist Robert Putnam’s influential book, ‘Bowling Alone,’ he argued that Americans were increasingly isolated socially,” Miller said. “But this data indicates that Generation X members are not bowling alone.

“Although they may be less likely to join community-based luncheon clubs, they have extensive social, occupational and community networks. They are active participants in parent-teacher organizations, local youth sports clubs, book clubs and other community organizations.”

In addition, Miller points out, nearly 90 percent of Generation X adults participated in at least one outdoor activity, such as hiking, swimming, boating or fishing, and 40 percent engaged in two or more recreation and leisure activities per month.

On the cultural side, 45 percent of the Generation X adults surveyed reported attending at least one play, symphony, opera or ballet performance during the preceding year, and 13 percent said they had attended three or more cultural events during the last year.

“Generation X adults are also readers,” Miller said. “Seventy-two percent read a newspaper, in print or online, at least once a week, and fully 80 percent bought and read at least one book during the last year. Nearly half said that they read six or more books in the last year.”

Finally, Miller reports, Generation X adults are happy with their lives, with an average level of 7.5 on a 10-point scale in which 10 equals “very happy.”

“That is not to say that some members of this generation are not struggling,” Miller said. “And in future issues of the Generation X Report we will address some of the challenges many members of this group are facing.”

The second Generation X Report will be issued in January 2012, on the topic of influenza. Using data collected during the 2010 influenza epidemic, the January report will explore how young adults kept abreast of the issue and what actions they eventually took to protect themselves and their families. Subsequent reports will cover food and cooking, climate, space exploration, and citizenship and voting.

The Generation X Report:
http://bit.ly/genXreport_fall2011

Jon Miller:
www.isr.umich.edu/cps/people_faculty_jondm.html

Longitudinal Study of American Youth:
www.lsay.org

Institute for Social Research:
www.isr.umich.edu

Established in 1949, the University of Michigan Institute for Social Research is the world’s largest academic social science survey and research organization, and a world leader in developing and applying social science methodology and in educating researchers and students from around the world. ISR conducts some of the most widely cited studies in the nation, including the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, the American National Election Studies, the Monitoring the Future Study, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the Health and Retirement Study, the Columbia County Longitudinal Study and the National Survey of Black Americans. ISR researchers also collaborate with social scientists in more than 60 nations on the World Values Surveys and other projects, and the institute has established formal ties with universities in Poland, China and South Africa. ISR is also home to the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research, the world’s largest digital social science data archive.

Contact: Diane Swanbrow
swanbrow@umich.edu
734-647-9069
University of Michigan

Harsh discipline fosters dishonesty in young children

Young children exposed to a harshly punitive school environment are more inclined to lie to conceal their misbehaviour than are children from non-punitive schools, a study of three- and four-year-old West African children suggests.

The study, published in the journal Child Development, also indicates that children in a punitive environment are able to tell more convincing lies than those in a non-punitive environment.

The research, by Professor Victoria Talwar of McGill University and Professor Kang Lee of the University of Toronto, examined deceptive behaviours in two groups of children living in the same neighbourhood. One group was enrolled in a private school that used a traditional authoritarian discipline model, in which beating with a stick, slapping of the head, and pinching were administered publicly and routinely for offenses ranging from forgetting a pencil to being disruptive in class. In the other school, also private, children were disciplined with time-outs or scolding and, for more serious offenses, were taken to the principal’s office for further reprimand.

The study involved an experiment comparing the behaviour of children in the two schools. Children were seen individually and asked to play a guessing game by an experimenter who was born and raised locally. The children were told not to peek at a toy when left alone in a room. Most children in both schools couldn’t resist the temptation, and peeked at the toy. When the experimenter asked if they had peeked, nearly all the peekers from the punitive school lied – compared with just over half of those from the non-punitive school. What’s more, after the initial lie, lie-tellers from the punitive school were better able to maintain their deception when answering follow-up questions about the identity of the toy – by deliberately giving an incorrect answer, for example, or by feigning ignorance, rather than blurting out the name of the toy.

The findings suggest that “a punitive environment not only fosters increased dishonesty but also children’s abilities to lie to conceal their transgressions,” Talwar and Lee conclude.

In fact, the three- and four-year-old lie-tellers in the punitive school were as advanced in their ability to tell convincing lies as six- to seven-year-old lie-tellers in existing studies. “This finding is surprising,” the authors note, as “existing studies have consistently found that children from punitive environments tend to suffer general delays in cognitive development.”

“One possibility is that the harsh punitive environment heightens children’s motivation to come up with any strategies that will help them survive in that environment,” Prof. Lee says. “Lying seems particularly adaptive for the situation.

“Our study, I think, may serve as a cautionary tale for parents who sometimes would use the harshest means of punishment when they catch their children lying. It is clear that corporal punishment not only does not reduce children’s tendency to lie, but actually improves their lying skills.”

Contact: Chris Chipello
christopher.chipello@mcgill.ca
514-398-4201
McGill University

The Political Effects Of Existential Fear

Why did the approval ratings of President George W. Bush— who was perceived as indecisive before September 11, 2001—soar over 90 percent after the terrorist attacks? Because Americans were acutely aware of their own deaths. That is one lesson from the psychological literature on “mortality salience” reviewed in a new article called “The Politics of Mortal Terror.” The paper, by psychologists Florette Cohen of the City University of New York’s College of Staten Island and Sheldon Solomon of Skidmore College, appears in October’s Current Directions in Psychological Science, a journal published by the Association for Psychological Science.

The fear people felt after 9/11 was real, but it also made them ripe for psychological manipulation, experts say. “We all know that fear tactics have been used by politicians for years to sway votes,” says Cohen. Now psychological research offers insight into the chillingly named “terror management.”

The authors cite studies showing that awareness of mortality tends to make people feel more positive toward heroic, charismatic figures and more punitive toward wrongdoers. In one study, Cohen and her colleagues asked participants to think of death and then gave them statements from three fictional political figures. One was charismatic: he appealed to the specialness of the person and the group to which she belonged. One was a technocrat, offering practical solutions to problems. The third stressed the value of participation in democracy.  After thinking about death, support for the charismatic leader shot up eightfold.

Even subliminal suggestions of mortality have similar effects. Subjects who saw the numbers 911 or the letters WTC had higher opinions of a Bush statement about the necessity of invading Iraq. This was true of both liberals and conservatives.

Awareness of danger and death can bias even peaceful people toward war or aggression. Iranian students in a control condition preferred the statement of a person preaching understanding and the value of human life over a jihadist call to suicide bombing. But primed to think about death, they grew more positive toward the bomber. Some even said that they might consider becoming a martyr.

As time goes by and the memory of danger and death grows fainter, however, “morality salience” tends to polarize people politically, leading them to cling to their own beliefs and demonize others who hold opposing beliefs—seeing in them the cause of their own endangerment.

The psychological research should make voters wary of emotional political appeals and even of their own emotions in response, Cohen says. “We encourage all citizens to vote with their heads rather than their hearts. Become an educated voter. Look at the candidate’s positions and platforms. Look at who you are voting for and what they stand for.”

Strategy for improving health care for uninsured, low-income, and minorities in the US

A new set of strategies released today by the Commonwealth Fund Commission on a High Performance Health System could dramatically improve how the U.S. health care system serves vulnerable populations – those in the U.S. who are uninsured, low-income, or members of racial and ethnic minority groups.

According to the new report, Ensuring Equity: A Post-Reform Framework to Achieve High Performance Health Care for Vulnerable Populations, closing the health care divide will require a three-pronged policy framework that ensures adequate access to health care and financial protection, strengthens the health care system’s ability to serve vulnerable populations, and supports coordination between the traditional health care system and the resources outside of the health care system that vulnerable groups rely upon.

The report highlights the significant divide between vulnerable populations and their more secure counterparts in rates of receiving recommended screening and preventive care, control of chronic diseases, and hospital admissions for conditions that may be preventable with good primary care and community health outreach. For example:

• Just four of 10 low-income adults receive all recommended screening and preventive care, compared with six of 10 higher-income adults.
• Nearly three of 10 (29%) uninsured adults diagnosed with diabetes do not have it well controlled, twice the rate of the insured (15%).
• Black adults are hospitalized for heart failure at rates (959 per 100,000) more than twice the rate for Hispanic adults (466 per 100,000), and nearly three times the rate for white adults (349 per 100,000).

“Our current economic situation has increased the number and proportion of people who are vulnerable, leaving even more families at risk of suffering from our health care system’s inequities,” said Commission Chair David Blumenthal, M.D., Samuel O. Thier Professor of Medicine and Professor of Health Care Policy at Massachusetts General Hospital/Partners HealthCare System and Harvard Medical School. “The recommendations in this report can encourage policymakers to focus on the unique issues facing these populations, and work toward creating a high performance health system for all.”

The authors note that Affordable Care Act provisions targeted at vulnerable populations will go a long way toward improving health care for these groups, primarily through expanded health insurance, increased financial support for community health centers, and reforms that should improve health care quality and allow for people in vulnerable groups to receive better coordinated health care. However, vulnerable groups will remain at risk for poor health outcomes unless crucial issues beyond health insurance coverage like access to health care, affordability, care coordination, and the financial stability of safety-net hospitals are addressed.

A Policy Framework for Vulnerable Populations

In the report, the 17-member Commission lays out a policy framework that builds on Affordable Care Act reforms to create a more equitable health care system. The Commission comprises experts and leaders representing every sector of health care, as well as the state and federal policy arena, the business sector, professional societies, and academia.

The framework’s overarching strategies revolve around ensuring adequate access and financial protection, strengthening the care delivery systems serving vulnerable populations, and coordinating the traditional health care system with outside resources also affecting vulnerable groups. Highlights of the framework include:

• Create enough willing providers for Medicaid beneficiaries. To alleviate the shortage of providers, and particularly specialty care providers, willing to serve Medicaid patients, the Commission recommends considering payment reforms to reward high-quality networks of providers for providing optimal care for Medicaid beneficiaries, more equitable Medicaid payment rates, and developing the workforce needed to care for vulnerable populations.
• Stabilize health insurance coverage. The report recommends limiting gaps and disruptions in health insurance that come from job or income changes by actions such as guaranteeing year-long coverage periods, providing access to the same insurance plans in exchanges and in Medicaid, merging small-group and individual health insurance exchanges, coordinating eligibility and enrollment for all forms of subsidized insurance through the exchanges, and ensuring that adequate numbers of essential community providers are included in both Medicaid and the subsidized plans.
• Limit out-of-pocket health care costs. The Commission recommends protecting consumers – particularly low-income families who may struggle with out-of-pocket costs despite affordable premiums – from excessive out-of-pocket health care costs through insurance benefit designs with incentives to use effective care and reasonable income-related limits on overall out-of-pocket spending.
• Ensure the financial stability of the safety net while stimulating higher performance. Ensure adequate funding for the safety-net system to continue to provide services to vulnerable populations, and use those financial resources to stimulate and reward higher performance.
• Promote greater clinical integration in safety-net care systems. Payment reform and regulatory changes that explicitly encourage collaboration and affiliation should be used to encourage providers to work together across health care settings and assure coordinated care for patients. In addition, safety-net providers should be encouraged to participate in accountable care systems that serve vulnerable groups.
• Focus on comprehensive, coordinated, team-based primary care for all providers serving vulnerable populations. The report cites evidence that much of the disparity in care experienced by vulnerable populations can be eliminated if they receive patient- and family-centered primary care that emphasizes team-based care, care coordination, care management, and preventive care. In addition, coordination with mental health and substance abuse services are particularly important for vulnerable patients. Government and private payers could promote team-based care for vulnerable groups by giving incentives for providers and patients and offering technical assistance and supports.
• Foster an infrastructure of community-based support services. All providers serving vulnerable populations should be able to link their practices with community-based services like transportation, translation, or nutritional support, which they may need to fully access and benefit from the health care system to help meet their patients’ needs.
• Align efforts between the health care delivery system and public health services. Providers serving vulnerable populations, as well as state and federal government agencies, should promote coordination of efforts between the health care delivery system and local public health resources and programs to develop effective approaches to addressing medical issues that affect vulnerable groups like obesity, diabetes, and asthma.

“This policy framework builds on the great strides we expect to be made for vulnerable populations once the Affordable Care Act takes full effect in 2014,” said Commonwealth Fund Executive Vice President for Programs Anthony Shih, M.D. “By addressing crucial issues like access to care, affordability, quality improvement, and better coordinated care, these recommendations seek to assure that the uninsured, those with low incomes, and racial and ethnic minorities see the full promise of health reform and experience a truly equitable health care system.”

“The Affordable Care Act is a big step forward in terms of addressing the significant needs of vulnerable groups and the health care providers who serve them,” said Commonwealth Fund President Karen Davis. “However, the inequity in our health care system is significant and – as laid out in the Commission’s new report – more work must be done in order to close that gap and assure that we have a health care system that provides all of us with access to high quality health care.”

The Commission report, Ensuring Equity: A Post-Reform Framework to Achieve High Performance Health Care for Vulnerable Populations, by Commonwealth Fund researchers Edward L. Schor, M.D., Julia Berenson, Anthony Shih, M.D., Sara R. Collins, Cathy Schoen, Pamela Riley, M.D., and Cara Dermody, will be available at http://www.commonwealthfund.org/Publications/Fund-Report/2011/Oct/Ensuring-Equity.aspx on Friday, October 7th, 2011.

The Commonwealth Fund Commission on a High Performance Health System, formed in April 2005, seeks opportunities to change the delivery and financing of health care to improve system performance and to identify public and private policies and practices that would lead to those improvements. It also explores mechanisms for financing improved health insurance coverage and investment in the nation’s capacity for quality improvement.

The Commission’s members are:

• David Blumenthal, M.D., M.P.P. (Chair), Massachusetts General Hospital/Partners HealthCare System and Harvard Medical School
• Maureen Bisognano, M.Sc., Institute for Healthcare Improvement
• Sandra Bruce, M.S., Resurrection Health Care
• Christine K. Cassel, M.D., American Board of Internal Medicine and ABIM Foundation
• Michael Chernew, Ph.D., Department of Health Care Policy Harvard Medical School
• John M. Colmers, M.P.H., Health Care Transformation and Strategic Planning Johns Hopkins Medicine
• Patricia Gabow, M.D. Denver Health
• Glenn M. Hackbarth, J.D.Consultant
• George C. Halvorson Kaiser Foundation Health Plan Inc.
• Jon M. Kingsdale, Ph.D., Consultant
• Gregory P. Poulsen, M.B.A., Intermountain Health Care
• Neil R. Powe, M.D., M.P.H., M.B.A., San Francisco General Hospital
• Louise Y. Probst, R.N., M.B.A., St. Louis Area Business Health Coalition
• Martín J. Sepúlveda, M.D., FACP, IBM Corporation
• David A. Share, M.D., M.P.H., Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan
• Glenn D. Steele, Jr., M.D., Ph.D., Geisinger Health System
• Alan R. Weil, J.D., M.P.P., National Academy for State Health Policy

The Commonwealth Fund is a private foundation supporting independent research on health policy reform and a high performance health system.

Contact: Mary Mahon
mm@cmwf.org
212-606-3853
Commonwealth Fund

Report reveals economic, social costs of hunger in America

The Great Recession and the currently tepid economic recovery swelled the ranks of American households confronting hunger and food insecurity by 30 percent. In 2010 48.8 million Americans lived in food insecure households, meaning they were hungry or faced food insecurity at some point during the year. That’s 12 million more people than faced hunger in 2007, before the recession, and represents 16.1 percent of the U.S. population.

Yet hunger is not readily seen in America. We see neither newscasts showing small American children with distended bellies nor legions of thin, frail people lined up at soup kitchens. That’s primarily because the expansion of the critical federal nutrition assistance program, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, helped many families meet some of their household food needs.

But in spite of the increase in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program funding, many families still have to make tough choices between a meal and paying for other basic necessities. In 2010 nearly half of the households seeking emergency food assistance reported having to choose between paying for utilities or heating fuel and food. Nearly 40 percent said they had to choose between paying for rent or a mortgage and food. More than a third reported having to choose between their medical bills and food.

What’s more, the research in this paper shows that hunger costs our nation at least $167.5 billion due to the combination of lost economic productivity per year, more expensive public education because of the rising costs of poor education outcomes, avoidable health care costs, and the cost of charity to keep families fed. This $167.5 billion does not include the cost of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and the other key federal nutrition programs, which run at about $94 billion a year.

We call this $167.5 billion America’s hunger bill. In 2010 it cost every citizen $542 due to the far-reaching consequences of hunger in our nation. At the household level the hunger bill came to at least $1,410 in 2010. And because our $167.5 billion estimate is based on a cautious methodology, the actual cost of hunger and food insecurity to our nation is probably higher.

This report also estimates the state-by-state impact of the rising hunger bill from 2007 through 2010. Fifteen states experienced a nearly 40 percent increase in their hunger bill compared to the national increase of 33.4 percent. The sharpest increases in the cost of hunger are estimated to have occurred in Florida (61.9 percent), California (47.2 percent), and Maryland (44.2 percent).

Our research in this report builds upon and updates a 2007 report principally sponsored by the Sodexo Foundation and written by Brandeis University Professor Donald Shepard, the principal author of this report; Larry Brown, who was then on the faculty at of the Harvard School of Public Health; and Timothy Martin and John Orwat from Brandeis University. That initial report, “The Economic Costs of Domestic Hunger,” was the first to calculate the direct and indirect cost of adverse health, education, and economic productivity outcomes associated with hunger. This study extends the 2007 study, examining the recession’s impact on hunger and the societal costs to our nation and to each of the 50 states in 2007 and 2010. It also provides the first estimate of how much hunger contributes to the cost of special education, which we found to be at least $6.4 billion in 2010.

The 2007 report estimated America’s hunger bill to be $90 billion in 2005, sharply lower than the $167.5 billion bill in 2010. In the pages that follow, we will describe how we calculated our nation’s annual hunger bill. We then argue that any policy solutions to address the consequences of hunger in America should consider these economic calculations. The reason: We believe our procedures for expressing the consequences of this social problem in economic terms help policymakers gauge the magnitude of the problem and the economic benefits of potential solutions.

In this paper we do not make specific policy proposals beyond adopting our methodology for calculating hunger in America, but we do point out that expanding the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program to all food insecure households could cost about $83 billion a year. While we do not recommend this approach, we note that nonetheless it would cost the nation much less than the most recent hunger bill in 2010 of $167.5 billion.

There are other policy approaches that also could achieve sustained reduction in hunger and food insecurity – approaches that rely on a mix of federal policies to boost the wages of the lowest-wage earners, increase access to full-time employment, and modestly expand federal nutrition programs. These policies are consistent with the variables used to allocate federal nutrition funding to states under The Emergency Food Assistance Program. In using the state’s poverty and unemployment rates, this program recognizes that improved economic conditions reduce hunger and the need for emergency support.

Donald S. Shepard is a professor at the Heller School, Brandeis University, in Waltham, Massachusetts. Elizabeth Setren is an assistant economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Donna Cooper is a Senior Fellow with the Center for American Progress.

Contact: Susan Chaityn Lebovits
lebovits@brandeis.edu
718-736-4027
Brandeis University

Certain biofuel mandates unlikely to be met by 2022; unless new technologies, policies developed

It is unlikely the United States will meet some specific biofuel mandates under the current Renewable Fuel Standard by 2022 unless innovative technologies are developed or policies change, says a new congressionally requested report from the National Research Council, which adds that the standard may be an ineffective policy for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. Achieving this standard would likely increase federal budget outlays as well as have mixed economic and environmental effects.

In 2005, Congress enacted the Renewable Fuel Standard as part of the Energy Policy Act and amended it in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. The amended standard mandated that by 2022 the consumption volume of the renewable fuels should consist of:

• 15 billion gallons of conventional biofuels, mainly corn-grain ethanol;
• 1 billion gallons of biomass-based diesel fuel;
• 4 billion gallons of advanced renewable biofuels, other than ethanol derived from cornstarch, that achieve a life-cycle greenhouse gas threshold of at least 50 percent; and
• 16 billion gallons of cellulosic biofuels produced from wood, grasses, or non-edible plant parts — such as from corn stalks and wheat straw. Except for biodiesel, these volumes are measured in ethanol units.

The committee that wrote the report said that production of adequate volumes of biofuels are expected to meet consumption mandates for conventional biofuels and biomass-based diesel fuel. However, whether and how the mandate for cellulosic biofuels will be met is uncertain. Currently, no commercially viable biorefineries exist for converting cellulosic biomass to fuel. The capacity to meet the renewable fuel mandate for cellulosic biofuels will not be available unless the production process is unexpectedly improved and technologies are scaled up and undergo several commercial-scale demonstrations in the next few years. Additionally, policy uncertainties and high costs of production may deter investors from aggressive deployment, even though the government guarantees a market for cellulosic biofuels up to the level of the consumption mandate, regardless of price.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The extent to which using biofuels rather than petroleum will reduce greenhouse gas emissions is uncertain, the report says. How biofuels are produced and the changes in land use or land cover that occur in the process affect biofuels’ impact on such emissions. Dedicated energy crops will have to be grown to meet the mandate, which will probably require conversion of uncultivated land or the displacement of commodity crops and pastures. If the expanded production involves removing perennial vegetation on a piece of land and replacing it with an annual commodity crop, then the land-use change would incur a one-time greenhouse gas emission from biomass and soil that could be large enough to offset benefits gained by displacing petroleum-based fuels with biofuels over subsequent years. Such land conversion may disrupt any future potential for storing carbon in biomass and soil. In addition, the renewable fuel standard can neither prevent market-mediated effects nor control land-use or land-cover changes in other countries.

Economic Effects

Only in an economic environment characterized by high oil prices, technological breakthroughs, and a high implicit or actual carbon price would biofuels be cost-competitive with petroleum-based fuels, the committee concluded. The best cost estimates of cellulosic biofuel are not economical compared with fossil fuels when crude oil’s price is $111 per barrel. Furthermore, absent major increases in agricultural yields and improved efficiency in converting biomass to fuels, additional cropland will be required for growing cellulosic feedstock. This could create competition among different land uses and, in turn, raise cropland prices.

In addition, achieving the renewable fuel standard would increase the federal budget outlays, mostly as a result of increased spending on grants, loans, loan guarantees, and other payments to support the development of cellulosic biofuels and foregone revenue as a result of biofuel tax credits. Moreover, nutritional and other income assistance programs are often adjusted for changes in the general price level. If food retail prices go up, expenses could increase for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and Special Supplemental Assistance Program for Women, Infants, and Children, as well as for much larger income assistance programs, such as Social Security, military and civilian retirement programs, and Supplemental Security Income Program. Nevertheless, given that biofuels are only one of many factors affecting food retail prices, it will be hard to attribute any future increases in program costs to the standard alone.

Environmental Effects

Although biofuels hold potential for providing net environmental benefits compared with using petroleum-based fuels, specific environmental outcomes from increasing biofuels production to meet the renewable fuel consumption mandate cannot be guaranteed. The type of feedstocks produced, management practices used, land-use changes that feedstock production might incur, and such site-specific details as prior land use and regional water availability will determine the mandate’s environmental effects, the report says. Biofuels production has been shown to have both positive and negative effects on water quality, soil, and biodiversity. However, air-quality modeling suggests that production and use of ethanol to displace gasoline is likely to increase air pollutants such as particulate matter, ozone, and sulfur oxides. In addition, published estimates of water use over the life cycle of corn-grain ethanol are higher than petroleum-based fuels.

Barriers and Opportunities

Key barriers to achieving the renewable fuel mandate are the high cost of producing cellulosic biofuels compared with petroleum-based fuels and uncertainties in future biofuel markets, the report finds. Biofuel production is contingent on subsidies, the nature of the mandate, and similar policies. Although the mandate guarantees a market for the cellulosic biofuels produced, even at costs considerably higher than fossil fuels, uncertainties in enforcement and implementation of the mandated levels affect investors’ confidence and discourage investment. To reduce costs of biofuels, the committee suggested carrying out research and development to improve feedstock yield and increasing the conversion yield from biomass to fuels.

The study was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Energy, and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine, and National Research Council make up the National Academies. They are independent, nonprofit institutions that provide science, technology, and health policy advice under an 1863 congressional charter. Panel members, who serve pro bono as volunteers, are chosen by the Academies for each study based on their expertise and experience and must satisfy the Academies’ conflict-of-interest standards. The resulting consensus reports undergo external peer review before completion. For more information, visit http://national-academies.org/studycommitteprocess.pdf. A panel roster follows.

Contacts:
Jennifer Walsh, Media Relations Officer
Shaquanna Shields, Media Relations Assistant
Office of News and Public Information
202-334-2138; e-mail news@nas.edu

Pre-publication copies of Renewable Fuel Standard: Potential Economic and Environmental Effects of U.S. Biofuel Policy are available from the National Academies Press; tel. 202-334-3313 or 1-800-624-6242 or on the Internet at http://www.nap.edu. Reporters may obtain a copy from the Office of News and Public Information (contacts listed above).

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
Division on Earth and Life Studies
Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources
Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

Committee on Economic and Environmental Impacts of Increasing Biofuels Production

Lester B. Lave1 (chair, deceased)
Professor and Director
Tepper School of Business
Carnegie Mellon University
Pittsburgh

Ingrid C. Burke (co-chair)
Director
Haub School and Ruckelshaus Institute of
Environment and Natural Resources, and
Professor
Department of Botany
University of Wyoming
Laramie

Wallace E. Tyner (co-chair)
James and Lois Ackerman Professor of Agricultural Economics, and
Co-director
Center for Research on Energy Systems and Policy
Purdue University
West Lafayette, Ind.

Virginia H. Dale
Director
Center for Bioenergy Sustainability, and
Corporate Fellow
Environmental Sciences Division
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Oak Ridge, Tenn.

Kathleen E. Halvorsen
Associate Professor of Natural Resource Policy
Michigan Technological University
Houghton

Jason D. Hill
Assistant Professor
Department of Bioproducts and Biosystems Engineering
University of Minnesota
St. Paul

Stephen R. Kaffka
Director
California Biomass Collaborative, and
Extension Specialist
Department of Plant Sciences
University of California
Davis

Kirk C. Klasing
Professor of Animal Nutrition
Department of Animal Science
University of California
Davis

Stephen J. McGovern
Consultant
PetroTech Consultants
Mantua, N.J.

John A. Miranowski
Professor of Economics
Iowa State University
Ames

Aristides A.N. Patrinos
President
Synthetic Genomics Inc.
La Jolla, Calif.

Jerald L. Schnoor 2
Allen S. Henry Chair in Engineering and Co-director
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Iowa
Iowa City

David Schweikhardt
Professor
Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics
Michigan State University
East Lansing

Theresa L. Selfa
Assistant Professor
Department of Environmental Studies
State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry
Syracuse

Brent L. Sohngen
Professor
Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics
Ohio State University
Columbus

J. Andres Soria
Assistant Professor of Wood Chemistry
School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Science
University of Alaska
Palmer

RESEARCH COUNCIL STAFF

Kara Laney
Study Co-director

Evonne Tang
Study Co-director

1 Member, Institute of Medicine

2 Member, National Academy of Engineering

Contact: Jennifer Walsh
news@nas.edu
202-334-2138
National Academy of Sciences

Growing up in bad neighborhoods has a ‘devastating’ impact

Growing up in a poor neighborhood significantly reduces the chances that a child will graduate from high school, according to a study published in the current (October) issue of the American Sociological Review. And the longer a child lives in that kind of neighborhood, the more harmful the impact.

The study by sociologists Geoffrey Wodtke and David Harding of the University of Michigan and Felix Elwert of the University of Wisconsin is the first to capture the cumulative impact of growing up in America’s most disadvantaged neighborhoods on a key educational outcome: high school graduation.

“Compared to growing up in affluent neighborhoods, growing up in neighborhoods with high levels of poverty and unemployment reduces the chances of high school graduation from 96 percent to 76 percent for black children,” said Wodtke, a doctoral student who works with Harding at the U-M Institute for Social Research (ISR). “The impact on white children is also harmful, but not as large, reducing their chances of graduating from 95 percent to 87 percent.”

In contrast to earlier research that examined neighborhood effects on children at a single point in time, the new study uses data from the ISR Panel Study of Income Dynamics to follow 2,093 children from age 1 through age 17, assessing the neighborhoods in which they lived every year.

“We found that black and white children had starkly different patterns of exposure to bad neighborhoods over the long term,” Wodtke said. “Black children were about seven times more likely than white children to experience long-term residence in the most disadvantaged 20 percent of neighborhoods.”

For the study, the researchers defined disadvantaged neighborhoods as those characterized by high poverty, unemployment and welfare receipt, many female-headed households, and few well-educated adults.

“Our results indicate that sustained exposure to disadvantaged neighborhoods has a much greater negative impact on the chances a child will graduate from high school than earlier research has suggested,” Wodtke said.

“The current findings demonstrate the importance of neighborhoods throughout childhood, and resonate with evidence from several other studies suggesting that residence in disadvantaged neighborhoods may have a negative effect on the cognitive development of children many years or even generations later,” Harding said.

“And while our study does not speak to the efficacy of specific policy interventions needed to improve communities that have suffered decades of structural neglect, it seems likely that a lasting commitment to neighborhood improvement and income desegregation would be necessary to resolve the problems identified in our study.”

Harding and Wodtke are also affiliated with the U-M Department of Sociology, part of the College of Literature, Science, and the Arts.

ISR Panel Study of Income Dynamics: http://psidonline.isr.umich.edu

David Harding: www.psc.isr.umich.edu/people/profile/688

Felix Elwert: www.ssc.wisc.edu/soc/faculty/show-person.php?person_id=388

Established in 1949, the University of Michigan Institute for Social Research is the world’s largest academic social science survey and research organization, and a world leader in developing and applying social science methodology, and in educating researchers and students from around the world. ISR conducts some of the most widely cited studies in the nation, including the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, the American National Election Studies, the Monitoring the Future Study, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the Health and Retirement Study, the Columbia County Longitudinal Study and the National Survey of Black Americans. ISR researchers also collaborate with social scientists in more than 60 nations on the World Values Surveys and other projects, and the institute has established formal ties with universities in Poland, China and South Africa. ISR is also home to the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research, the world’s largest digital social science data archive. For more information, visit the ISR website at www.isr.umich.edu.

Contact: Diane Swanbrow
swanbrow@umich.edu
734-647-9069
University of Michigan

‘Finding yourself’ on Facebook

American teenagers are spending an ever-increasing amount of time online, much to the chagrin of parents who can’t seem to tear their children away from Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook. But despite the dangers that lurk on the web, the time that teens spend on the Internet can actually be beneficial to their healthy development, says a Tel Aviv University researcher.

Prof. Moshe Israelashvili of TAU’s Jaime and Joan Constantiner School of Education, with his M.A. student Taejin Kim and colleague Dr. Gabriel Bukobza, studied 278 teens, male and female, from schools throughout Israel. They found that many teens were using the Internet as a tool for exploring questions of personal identity, successfully building their own future lives using what they discover on the Web.

Prof. Israelashvili’s research, which was published in the Journal of Adolescence, encourages parents and educators to look at engagement with the online world as beneficial for teens. Social networking, he says, is a positive example of Internet use: “Facebook use is not in the same category as gambling or gaming.” As a result, Prof. Israelashvili says, researchers should redefine the characteristics of the disorder called “Internet addiction” in adolescents.

Redefining internet addiction

The TAU researchers asked the teens to rate themselves in terms of Internet use, ego clarification, and self-understanding, and how well they related to their peer group. The researchers discovered that there was a negative correlation between Internet overuse and the teens’ levels of ego development and clarity of self-perception. Prof. Israelashvili refers to it as an indication that some Internet use is destructive and isolating while some is informative and serves a socializing function.

These results show that the current understanding of adolescent Internet addiction demands redefinition. Psychiatrists now classify an “Internet addict” as a person who spends more than 38 hours on the Internet every week. But it’s the quality, not the quantity that matters, argues Prof. Israelashvili. The researchers determined that many teens who participated in the study met the psychiatric standard of “Internet addiction,” but were actually using the Internet as a tool to aid in their journey of self-discovery.

Prof. Israelashvili says that there are two different kinds of teenage “Internet addicts.” The first group is composed of adolescents who really are addicted, misusing the Internet with things like online gaming and gambling or pornographic websites, isolating themselves from the world around them. The other group of teens can be defined as “self clarification seekers,” whose use of the Internet helps them to comprehensively define their own identities and place in the world. These teens tend to use the Internet for social networking and information gathering, such as on news sites or Twitter.

Adding in family time

Parents and educators should change the conversations they have with teens about Internet use, the researchers urge. The Internet is a big part of our modern lifestyle, and both adults and children are spending more time there. As a result, what is important is how that time is used. Students must learn to use the Internet in a healthy way – as a source of knowledge about themselves in relation to their peers around the world, recommends Prof. Israelashvili.

If parents still don’t like the amount of time their teens are spending in front of the computer, they should consider becoming an information resource for their adolescent children, encouraging a healthy flow of conversation in the household itself. “Too many parents are too preoccupied,” says Prof. Israelashvili. “They demand high academic achievements, and place less importance on teaching their children how to face the world.” Teens won’t give up the Internet, but they may spend less time online if family interactions meet some of the same needs.

By the time teens reach the age of 18 or 19, they enter a new phase of life called “emerging adulthood,” in which they take the lessons of their adolescence and implement them to build a more independent life. If they have spent their teenage years worrying only about their academic performance or gaming, they won’t be able to manage well during their emerging adulthood and might have difficulties in making personal decisions and relate well to the world around them, Prof. Israelashvili concludes.

American Friends of Tel Aviv University (www.aftau.org) supports Israel’s leading, most comprehensive and most sought-after center of higher learning. Independently ranked 94th among the world’s top universities for the impact of its research, TAU’s innovations and discoveries are cited more often by the global scientific community than all but 10 other universities.

Internationally recognized for the scope and groundbreaking nature of its research and scholarship, Tel Aviv University consistently produces work with profound implications for the future.

Contact: George Hunka
ghunka@aftau.org
212-742-9070
American Friends of Tel Aviv University

Study ‘changes our understanding’ of youth voting behavior

Low-income youth are more apt to vote if they are engaged in political activism and influenced by friends and family, according to a study by Michigan State University education scholars that sheds new light on voting behavior.

Previous research held that poor youth tend to either vote or get involved in political activism such as peaceful protests, but not generally both. The new study, however, found a connection between political activism and the ballot box.

“This study changes our understanding of youths’ political behavior,” said Matthew Diemer, associate professor of education and lead researcher on the project.

The study is scheduled to run in the November/December print edition of the research journal Child Development.

It’s well known that young people from poor and working-class families tend to vote less often than affluent youth. Diemer and doctoral student Cheng-Hsien Li, both from MSU’s College of Education, set out to explore the factors involved in getting low-income youth engaged in politics.

They analyzed a sample from the national Civic and Political Health Survey, which gauges young people’s attitudes about government and sociopolitical issues. Their sample included 665 surveys from low-income participants under age 25.

Diemer said he controlled for civic and political knowledge, as young people who know more about these issues tend to be more engaged.

The researchers found that it was largely discussions with peers and parents – and not the influence of teachers – that fueled political engagement among low-income youth.

In some cases, Diemer said, individual schools or school districts may choose to steer clear of emphasizing issues such as social justice and racism in civics class. In other cases, civics teachers may not feel comfortable discussing potentially controversial issues with their students.

If civics teachers had more autonomy and freedom to engage students in discussions about politics and social-justice issues, Diemer said it would likely affect their participation in politics.

“The traditional civics class focuses on things like knowing the three branches of government. That’s still important, obviously, but I think it’s also important for students to understand what motivates people to participate in political and social issues and to have lasting commitments,” Diemer said.

“If we can have teachers spend time on this new type of civics,” he added, “then maybe we can get a generation of younger people who are more engaged politically.”

Contact: Matthew Diemer
diemerm@msu.edu
517-355-6684
Michigan State University

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